كتب هذا المقال أ. مصباح قطب
عقد منتدى البحوث الاقتصادية بالتعاون مع شعبة المحررين الاقتصاديين بنقابة الصحفيين، الحلقة النقاشية الثانية من سلسلة الحوار القومى حول مصر المستقبل يوم الأربعاء 30 سبتمبر بمقر المنتدى. أدار الحلقة الدكتور/ أحمد جلال المدير التنفيذي للمنتدى. وناقشت هذه الحلقة أهمية تزامن الإصلاح الاقتصادي والسياسي في مصر في المرحلة الراهنة ومدى إمكانية نجاح أحدهما دون الآخر. وتضمنت الحلقة مجموعة من المتحدثون وهم: السيد/ عمرو موسى أمين عام جامعة الدول العربية سابقا و الدكتور/ زياد بهاء الدين نائب رئيس الوزراء ووزير التعاون الدولي سابقًا و الدكتور/ سلوى العنترى مدير عام قطاع البحوث بالبنك الأهلي المصري سابقا و الدكتور/ عمرو الشوبكي خبير بمركز الأهرام للدراسات السياسية والاستراتيجية
اعلن عمرو موسى – رئيس لجنة الخمسين التى وضعت الدستور الحالى- انه ليس خائفا من البرلمان المقبل وان انتخابات البرلمان ستتم فى موعدها مضيفا ان الانتخابات لو جرت قبل عامين من الان او بعد عامين من الان فسنرى نفس المخاوف التى تقال حاليا ولذلك فان الافضل ان نمضى قدما لاستكمال الاطار السياسى و حتى يتولى البرلمان التعبير عن الشعب واعمال الرقابة والتشريع مضيفا ان البرلمان ا لمقبل سيكون هو المدرسة الى تتاسس فيها التيارات السياسية من جديد لان التيارات الحالية هى نتاج عصر مضى ولا تصلح للقرن الواحد والعشرين
اكد موسى ان الحملة المثارة حاليا ضد الدستور ضعيفة ومجرد حنجرة ولا جسم لها وذكر ان الدستور يجب ان يطبق اولا وبعد ذلك ننظر الى ما يحتاج الى تعديل فنعدله ب” رصانة وعقل” وليس بالفضائيات
اوضح ان العودة الى تجارب مضى عليها 50 او 60 عاما هى هزيمة للمجتمع وان مصر لا تملك ترف التجريب ولابد لها من اصلاح شامل يقودها الى التنمية والرخاء كما يفعل العالم كله الان. ذكران اخطر التحديات التى تواجهها مصر هى الارهاب والاهمال والفساد والنفاق والتحدى الاقتصادى بالطبع. ولابد من وقفة لمواجهة كل ذلك والا ربنا يلطف
The Economic Research Forum (ERF) will hold a national dialogue under the title “Between Political Reform and Economic Development…Egypt the Future” on September 30, 2015. The event emanates from ERF’s understanding of the importance of having a serious discussion on the future of Egypt.
Renowned economists, political scientists, policy makers and journalists are expected to attend the dialogue to debate the nature of the relationship between economic development and political reform. This timely topic comes as Egypt approaches the holding of much anticipated parliamentary elections – the third and final step of the political roadmap set forth after the June 30 uprising – making the need to clarify the relationship between political reform and economic development all the more pressing.
The dialogue will be moderated by ERF Managing Director Ahmed Galal and will feature former Arab League head Amr Moussa, former Minister of International Cooperation Ziad Bahaa el-Din, former Member of Parliament Amr El-Shobaki, and former Director of Research at the National Bank of Egypt Salwa el-Antary.
The Economic Research Forum (ERF) is organizing three workshops on “Education in the ERF Region,” “Labor Market Dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa,” and “The Use of Labor Market Panel Survey Data” from July 26-28, 2015, at ERF’s premises in Cairo.
During the workshops, participants will discuss the first drafts of a number of papers covering various topics related to incentives to learn in MENA, spending on education, returns to education, student achievements and the role of socioeconomic backgrounds, labor market dynamics, dynamics of informalization and household enterprises, migration and data collection methods, migration and labor market performance, labor mobility and employment outcomes, female participation and family dynamics, and inequality of opportunity in MENA.
This blog is written by Ragui Assaad
The Egyptian labor market has been both a driving force behind the January 25 Revolution and one of its major casualties. Although the revolution was about lofty ideals, such as dignity and liberty, it was also partially caused by the anger and frustration of increasingly educated but often jobless young people. The economic crisis and dramatic slowdown following the revolution adversely affected the labor market, but the impact was not necessarily felt in terms of increases in open unemployment, but rather in a sharp increase in underemployment – a phenomenon that is most likely to affect the most vulnerable of workers, namely irregular wageworkers and the self-employed. Some workers, such as public sector workers, actually benefited from the revolution, as politicians responded to popular anger by raising their wages and improving their conditions of employment.
Why were the young people so angry?
There was widespread feeling among young people that the Mubarak regime was failing to uphold its part of the social contract that had been the basis of state-society relations in Egypt since Nasser’s time. The terms of this implicit contract, which is often referred to in the political science literature as the ‘authoritarian bargain,’ are that the government guarantees a place in the middle class for those who achieve a minimum level of education (usually upper secondary schooling) by providing them with secure, lifetime jobs in the public sector and with access to subsidized goods and services. In return, the population agrees to a highly restrictive form of political participation and refrains from questioning the State’s authoritarian practices. Continue reading
This blog is written by Alissa Amico (Program Manager, MENA, Corporate Affairs Division, OECD).
Most stock exchanges in the Middle East, with the exception of the Palestine Stock Exchange, the Dubai Financial Market and a few broker-owned markets in North Africa are – unlike their largest global peers – state owned. While some exchanges in the Middle East have explored privatization or ownership restructuring, only the Kuwait Stock Exchange has moved in this direction. It is debatable whether and under what conditions other exchanges in the region will follow and if the timing is right, with the impending opening of Tadawul to foreign investors and the intense competition among financial centers in the region.
Even less known than the ownership model of exchanges, is the type of investors who dominate markets in the region. While the dependence of MENA markets on retail investors is no secret, less is known about the behavior and profile of institutional investors. And this is crucial as exchanges seek to attract foreign capital flows and encourage long-term investment. Institutional investors in the region are quite different in profile from developed or even other emerging markets, which are dominated by investment and pension funds and insurance companies.
The Economic Research Forum is organizing a workshop on “The Political Economy of the Private Sector in the Middle East,” June 5-6, 2015, in Oxford, UK. The workshop, being held in collaboration with the Oxford Center for Islamic Studies, will discuss the first drafts of a number of papers covering various topics related to cronyism in the banking sector and capital markets, corruption in the job market, firm ownership, rules versus deals and public private partnerships, among others.
The event comes in the context of the MENA region’s suffering from a fragile private sector that is weakly connected with global markets and thrives largely under state patronage. Although extensive state-business interactions can form the basis for dynamic capitalism, they can also become sources of insider influence, corruption and other forms of rent-seeking that distort politics, regulation, judicial functioning and business incentives. In MENA, the system of de facto privileges and restrictions has created a corporate pyramid composed of a small number of connected firms at the top, where competition is muted, and a large base of small firms at the bottom. Continue reading
This blog is written by Ahmed Goher (Economic Research Forum)
The Economic Research Forum held a three-day training workshop, from May 10-12 at its headquarters in Cairo, on the use of opinion poll data to link norm changes to underlying circumstances, such as family background, ethnicity, gender, generation and place of origin.
More specifically, workshop participants focused on the use of the World Values Survey data sets from the 6th wave, covering 13 MENA countries. Lectures featured Bi Puranen (World Values Survey), Eduard Ponarin (World Values Survey), Irina Vartanova (Saint-Petersburg Higher School of Economics), Ishac Diwan (Paris Dauphine University) and Mohamed Al-Ississ (American University in Cairo) and explored econometric methods with a select review of the economic, political science, and sociological literature that use opinion polls to test theories empirically.
The workshop also covered techniques that include factor and cluster analysis, linear or logistic regression analysis, and structural equation modeling. Participants were also introduced to various types of graphical analysis.